Early Forecast Says Below-Average Hurricane Season

8 04 2016

The 2016 Hurricane Season will soon be here.  Everybody should begin preparing for the annual season which begins on June 1st.  Fort Bend County’s Office of Emergency Management completes approximately 40 preparedness tasks during the Spring to get adequately prepared for the Hurricane Season.  Updating the County’s Traffic Management Plan is a priority.  The Traffic Management Plan guides evacuations through Fort Bend County when our neighbors in Galveston County and Brazoria County need to evacuate.  Even though Fort Bend County citizens do not generally need to evacuate because of a hurricane, but it is critical that our jurisdictions and law enforcement agencies have a plan to keep our evacuation routes open and clear during a large-scale exodus from counties near the coast.

I have copied a recent article from Emergency Management magazine (March 22, 2016).  The article was written by Kimberly Miller from The Palm Beach Post in Florida.  The crux of the article is that a well-known hurricane prediction expert is indicating that hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean may be lessened in 2016 because of cold water.  This is an early prediction; more predictions will be coming out from experts in the coming weeks.  But, don’t let the hint of a “timid” forecast make you procrastinate about taking preparedness actions.  In 1992, there were only seven named storms, but one of them was Hurricane Andrew which, at the time, was the most destructive hurricane to hit the United States.  Even a much smaller hurricane will severely disrupt the lives of our community; so please use this Spring to prepare for the 2016 Hurricane Season.


Article from Kimberly Miller:

A below-average hurricane season this year? Floridians will take that, even if it is just an early prediction.

Phil Klotzbach, a leading hurricane expert, made that prediction Monday, based partly on the fact that frigid waters flowing out of the North Atlantic Ocean may limit activity as warm seas that feed energy to storms cool.

“The far north Atlantic is one of the few really cold areas on the globe right now, and those cold anomalies are bleeding down toward the west coast of Africa,” said Klotzbach, a researcher with Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science. “From there, they alter pressure patterns, winds and churn up the sea surface making the Atlantic not as conducive for a super active season.”

Klotzbach, who made his prediction Monday at the week-long National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, won’t deliver his official storm forecast until April.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is also weeks away from releasing its official 2016 hurricane forecast, but meteorologists have been buzzing about whether the end of El Nino will leave the U.S. more vulnerable to storms.

El Nino, a global weather phenomenon that begins with a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean, is characterized by strong westerly winds that cut down Atlantic storms.

The 2015-2016 El Nino, one of the strongest on record, is expected to weaken by summer.

But like a pendulum, the mighty trade winds that take a backseat during El Nino, can roar back, awakening La Nina – a more accommodating hurricane host.

The most recent forecast by the Climate Prediction Center says there is a 50 percent chance La Nina will arrive by September. Hurricane season runs June through November.

“The higher the chances of La Nina, the higher the chances for a bigger than usual hurricane season,” said Bob Henson, a meteorologist and blogger for Weather Underground, in an interview earlier this month. “You have less wind shear and more favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms to develop into hurricanes.”

But Klotzbach stressed Monday that the atmosphere doesn’t always react immediately to change, meaning an El Nino hangover may linger to help thwart storms. Also, other factors, such as an area of low pressure he says has been a predominant factor over the East Coast have acted against storms. Low pressure turns in a counter-clockwise direction, pushing hurricanes away from the U.S. coast and to the north.

“I think the best example of this was 2010 when there were 12 hurricanes in the Atlantic and not one hit the U.S.,” Klotzbach said. “We were extraordinarily lucky that year.”

In fact, while Klotzbach looks at decades worth of data to see what patterns produce weak or active hurricane seasons, he said sometimes a hurricane miss is just providence.

The U.S. has not been hit by a major hurricane – Category 3 or higher – in 10 years. Florida’s last hurricane was 2005’s Wilma.

“There has been a significant luck component,” he said. “There have been 27 major hurricanes in a row with none hitting the U.S. The odds of that are one in several thousand.”

Klotzbach is lead author on the annual hurricane forecasts by Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project. He took over the task in 2006 from noted hurricane researcher William Gray.

Last year, the duo’s April hurricane forecast said there would be seven named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane. The season ended in November with 11 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

“2016 will be a good test since we won’t have El Nino,” said Klotzbach, who believes the Atlantic may have entered a climatic pattern of fewer hurricanes. “It would definitely increase confidence that we are moving out of an active time for storms.”

Klotzbach is among dozens of weather and emergency management experts speaking at this year’s National Hurricane Conference. About 1,500 people are registered for the week-long event.

Unified Vision, Proactive Thinking Driving Fort Bend Prosperity

1 04 2016

The article below was published in The Katy Rancher on Tuesday, March 15, 2016.  The article was written by Landan Kuhlmann.


Fort Bend County SealFort Bend County has become a symbol of economic and demographic growth, not only in Texas but nationally, as the fourth-fastest growing county in the nation, with several factors contributing the boom.

Fort Bend Economic Development Council President and CEO Jeff Wiley believes that quality growth is the most important driver of economic prosperity available to a community. He credits the cooperation between Fort Bend and the entities within it as well as a unified vision for economic growth for enabling the county to not only achieve, but maintain, such growth.

“These common core beliefs, the continued public and private sector leadership and the results themselves instill trust by the community and cooperation by leaders to achieve more together than by themselves,” he said.

The old phrase “numbers don’t lie” certainly holds true in this aspect, as Fort Bend County has become a regional leader in virtually every aspect of demographic and economic excellence tracked at the highest level for several decades.

The Houston-Woodlands-Sugar Land region of the county is 11th fastest-growing metro area in the US, while Fort Bend County itself grew by more than 3.8 percent in 2013-2014 according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown topped Forbes’ list of America’s fastest-growing cities.

Wiley did note that growth of any type brings its own set of potential obstacles. For example, he mentioned that residential and population growth means increased responsibilities–every type of service provided must expand in accordance with housing and population growth.

“In many cases, the cost of servicing this growth exceeds the service revenues and property taxes generated by the growth,” he said.

On the other hand, Wiley said growth of businesses in a community generates property taxes which exceed service costs, thereby helping support the costs of providing the aforementioned services and providing other benefits.

“Commercial growth also provides primary jobs to a community, allowing residents to find employment opportunities,” he said. “Keeping and growing jobs is the second vital component of a successful economic development formula,” he said.

Several Fort Bend cities appear on lists here too, with Sugar Land rated as the top place to find a job in 2014 according to Money Magazine and Katy garnering the distinction as the fourth-best city in Texas to start a business.

Setting the conditions which attract such business growth is equally important according to Wiley.

“Low taxes, low burdens of entry, quality schools, educated and skilled workforce, and in some cases, business incentives are all parts of the toolbox in efforts to draw businesses to a community,” he said. “This is not a secret, but delivery of these building blocks to success are often difficult to accomplish.”

Wiley also praised the county’s economic development leadership, whether it be housed in elected or appointed positions, city staff or public and private partnerships.

“We understand the critical nature of setting the conditions for growth and work to improve them every day,” he said.

Numerous highway projects such has the US 90, Highway 59 and Grand Parkway expansions have enabled the county to keep pace with its aforementioned booming growth. Wiley says transportation and mobility are important not only to connect Fort Bend to Houston, but to connect the communities within the county lines as well.

Another reason Fort Bend has maintained its quality economic growth according to Wiley is county officials’ forethought in attempts to head off or prepare for any potential crisis before it even arises.

“Whether transportation, education, water, or sewer drainage, Fort Bend works to develop infrastructure in advance of critical stages,” Wiley said. “To do anything different would compromise quality of life for the community.”

A full list of Fort Bend County’s economic and demographic recognitions can be found at fortbendcounty.com by clicking under the “News” tab and clicking “Accolades.”

Needville Fire Department Dedicates New Rescue Truck

25 03 2016

Recent article from the Fort Bend Herald, published on March 5, 2016:


Fire Chief Keith Thumann and members of the Needville Fire Department received the department’s newest fire rescue vehicle on Friday, March 4, during a dedication ceremony at the Fire Department’s Station No. 1 on Richmond Street.

The fire/rescue truck will replace several apparatus the department has phased out over the last three years with the proceeds of those sales helping to make it possible to purchase the new rescue truck. The new Rescue 71 will respond to emergencies in all areas of the NFD service area, approx. 172 square miles, as needed. The last time the volunteer department purchased a new fire truck was in 2007.

“In Needville, we are extremely fortunate to have such a dedicated group of firefighters who have taken the oath to enter harm’s way in order to keep our community safe,” said Chief Keith Thumann.

“It is only deserving then that these brave men and women who volunteer have access to the safest, most reliable, and most advanced fire fighting equipment that’s available. When an emergency strikes, it is essential that our firefighters can act with precision and this state of the art rescue truck is a tool to help with doing just that.”

“Our Needville firefighters do an excellent job in fighting fires but we are also recognized for providing medical response for our citizens,” said Assistant Chief Craig Radar.

Needville firefighters gather around their new rescue truck

Needville firefighters gather around their new rescue truck

“This new rescue truck will help them arrive with first responder tools to begin basic medical needs,” added Radar. Needville Fire Department was recently recognized by Fort Bend County Emergency Medical Services as a First Responder Organization.

Only organizations who have maintained current medical training with EMT level response qualify. The fire department is a non-profit organization whose board members worked for several years to save funds needed to buy a custom made apparatus to meet the diverse needs in the department’s service area.

“We want to thank our supporters for donating at various events, fundraisers, BBQ sales, and private donations to help make this day happen”, said Assistant Chief and Treasurer Michael Richter.

In recent weeks, the NFD service area (a major portion of southeast Fort Bend County) has experienced several residential and grass fires, and major motor vehicle accidents. The weather is still a major factor in both situations. The dryer conditions and high winds can make it easier for a simple brush fire to get out of control.
And with more traffic on the roads through the Needville service area slick road conditions and fog have played a contributing factor in the severity of the accidents the department has had to respond to., he said.

“The Needville Fire Department wants to once again remind residents to be vigilant this spring and summer season—a time that traditionally sees a spike in fire and medical calls to our department,” added Chief Thumann.

For additional details on the new fire truck contact Fire Chief Keith Thumann at 832-474-0143 or PIO Dwayne “Sparky” Anderson at 979-793-4262.

Katy Hire New Fire Chief

21 03 2016

Article by Dennis Spellman, published on March 16, 2016 in Covering Katy:


City of Katy LogoRussell Wilson was named City of Katy fire chief by the city council earlier this week. Wilson currently serves as an assistant fire chief with the City of Irving. He will start his new post on May 2.

Wilson holds a Master of Science in Fire and Emergency Management Administration and has been in the fire service industry for 27 years. He is certified through the Texas Commission on Fire Protection as a master firefighter, fire instructor master, hazardous materials response technician and field examiner. Wilson is also a graduate of the Fire Service Chief Executive Officer Program through the business school at Texas A&M University.

The hiring of Katy’s new fire chief concludes what was a 5 month selection process.

Wilson will take over for interim Fire Chief Rufus Summers, who has lead the department for more than two years. During his time at the helm he led the restructuring of the fire department.

The Katy Fire Department began with a group of volunteers in 1947. According to the City of Katy website, 14 men met in a schoolroom and established the city’s fire protection service. The department’s equipment consisted of an Army surplus crash truck purchased from Ellington Field with money donated by the residents of Katy. The Katy Volunteer Fire Department gradually increased in size as the city grew and developed.

Today, the department has grown from an all-volunteer department to a professional department with paid personnel. Still, the department encourages volunteerism, according to the city’s website.

In addition to providing fire and emergency medical services, the department also oversees the city’s Office of Emergency Management, which handles natural and manmade disasters.

What is an Emergency Manager?

15 03 2016

Headline in The New York Times:  “Anger in Michigan Over Appointing Emergency Managers”

Headline in The Nation:  “The Scandal of Michigan’s Emergency Managers”

Headline in the Arizona Daily Star:  “Problems in Michigan show rift over emergency managers”

Clearly, the headlines listed above are disturbing.  As a certified emergency manager, my interest naturally piques when I come across a headline which indicates that there might be problems with my profession which is focused on disaster management.  What the heck is going on in Michigan?  Why are people angry with the Emergency Managers? What rifts have been created?  The fact that events have caused such questions to be raised is of concern to both me and the others I know that work in the field of emergency management.

They seem like strange questions.  Why?  Well, because the “emergency managers’ that I know are dedicated public servants who are focused on saving lives, preventing injuries, and protecting property when a disaster occurs.  These individuals are busy making plans, organizing resources, and analyzing data all in an effort to mitigate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from effects of all types of hazards.  Perhaps getting organizations and citizens prepared for the hurricane season which begins on June 1st.  Perhaps sending out warning and alerts when a river is outside its banks and threatens a community.  Perhaps working with federal disaster aid workers who arrive in a community where a tornado has touched down causing loss of life and damages to homes and businesses.

A group of protesters carry signs against an emergency financial manager being appointed to the city of Detroit as they protest outside a private club where Michigan Governor Rick Snyder was scheduled to speak in downtown Detroit, Michigan March 8, 2013. Snyder declared that the city faces a fiscal emergency which virtually assures that the state of Michigan will assume control of Detroit's books and eventually decide whether the city should file the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. REUTERS/ Rebecca Cook (UNITED STATES - Tags: POLITICS BUSINESS CIVIL UNREST)

A group of protesters carry signs against an emergency financial manager being appointed to the city of Detroit as they protest outside a private club where Michigan Governor Rick Snyder was scheduled to speak in downtown Detroit, Michigan March 8, 2013. Snyder declared that the city faces a fiscal emergency which virtually assures that the state of Michigan will assume control of Detroit’s books and eventually decide whether the city should file the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. REUTERS/ Rebecca Cook (UNITED STATES – Tags: POLITICS BUSINESS CIVIL UNREST)

Usually citizens do not get “angry” about the work of emergency managers— but they seem to do so in Michigan?  It made me wonder why that could be.  Well, the answer is actually quite simple—- though Michigan does have its share of “disaster emergency managers,” they also have other positions, created by the State Legislature, that focus on “emergency financial managers.”  These “emergency financial managers” do not necessarily focus on disasters of all types (e.g. hurricanes, public health, etc…); instead they are individuals appointed by the Governor of Michigan to take control of a local governments facing a financial emergency. Sometimes they are even appointed to take control of public schools.

More than twenty times a Governor has appointed a manager to supplant a governing body or a chief executive officer to fix a financial problem.  After being appointed, these “emergency financial managers” have the authority to remove any of the governing body’s elected officials if they are not providing adequate assistance.  These managers are empowered to take total control of the finances of the agency, including having the ability to reduce pay, use private contractors, reorganize agency departments, and modify employee contracts.   They undoubtedly have tough jobs to do and obviously limited resources to do those jobs.  But, also, these emergency managers are often “outsiders” who are taking charge over and above the sentiments of the local populations and elected officials.  So, now I get it.  Now the headlines above make some sense—– I can clearly envision individuals who have “all the financial power” making citizens angry and causing rifts in a community.

The problem is that in Michigan, these individuals are simply called “Emergency Managers.”  That is misleading and confusing in many ways.  The headlines make sense to me now—- but I have a long background in municipal government working as both a city manager and an emergency manager (or should I specifically state a “disaster” emergency manager).  And I spent the time to investigate what is actually going on in Michigan.

But for the average citizen perusing the Internet, or who may still read a newspaper, they do not know there are two type of “emergency managers.”  They are not going to investigate the differences and they are going to assume that all “emergency managers” are the same because the moniker is the same—- even though the duties of the two types are not remotely the same.  And presently, you are probably hearing the term used many times in reference to the Flint, Michigan contaminated water emergency.

In a news release issued today, the International Association of Emergency Managers (IAEM), believes “there is serious confusion and misunderstanding of the use of the term “emergency manager” in the press and public related to the Flint water situation,” as well as previous use of “emergency managers” in places like Detroit, Pontiac, and Benton Harbor, just to name a few locations.  So, what is the problem?

IAEM logoRobie Robinson, President of IAEM, takes a stab at answering that particular question in the news release.  He states that “the use of the term ’emergency manager’ to describe these appointed financial managers in Michigan has generated an incredible amount of dangerous confusion for the public, especially since the Flint issue has now become a national story.  Dedicated emergency managers across the country now are being forced to address questions that underline a misguided sense of concern about the role of an emergency manager.”  And, of course, Mr. Robinson is referring to the “disaster-type” of emergency manager.

“Unfortunately, an impression is beginning to take shape that emergency managers exist to cut budgets and reduce costs at the expense of the community safety and security,” Robinson noted, when indeed the exact opposite is true.”  As described above in this blog entry, the emergency managers most familiar in communities across the country, and including more than 4,200 professional emergency managers in the United States, do not act in a manner as a financial experts with immense powers to rein in the spending habits of a community.  Instead, most emergency managers work daily to collaborate with the community—- public safety agencies, non-profit organizations, the private sector, the media, in essence the “whole community,” in an effort to support disaster response and recovery efforts and build relationships to keep the community safe both on a daily basis; and in times of disaster.  And most importantly, they are not outsiders, they are members of the communities who build trust with those they serve.

“One thing must be made absolutely clear: the term ‘emergency manager’ in the Flint, Michigan, situation refers to a fiscal-­‐only function that bears no relationship to the term as it is commonly and universally used on national and an international basis,” states Robinson. “In the context of the Flint situation, emergency managers are actually municipal ‘emergency financial managers’ (EFMs) established by the Michigan legislature and appointed by the governor to oversee jurisdictions in Michigan that are threatened with financial insolvency.”

One last point I would like to make is that this confusion never really had to happen.  In Michigan, when this emergency manager position was created by Public Act 101 of 1988 (and as amended by Public Act 72 of 1990), the term used was actually “Emergency Financial Manager.”  But, as I understand the history, Public Act 72 was replaced by Public Act 4 of 2011, which RENAMED the position to emergency manager.

So the solution seems relatively simple—-let’s go back to the name of Emergency Financial Manager, or EFT, as was initially legislated in the early 1990s.  As stated in its news release today, “IAEM urges all media, members of government, and other leaders to educate the public, and help clarify that, in Michigan, an individual who is appointed to oversee a governmental body or jurisdiction because it is threatened with financial insolvency is not an ’emergency manager,’ but rather an ’emergency financial manager.’”



City Fire & Rescue Services Improves ISO Rating to Highest Level

15 02 2016

Below, please find information from a News Release issued by the City of Missouri City today:

Earlier this month, Missouri City was notified by the Insurance Services Office (ISO) that effective Aug. 1, 2016, it will have a Public Protection Class rating of 1/1Y, the highest rating awarded by ISO. Currently, only 26 cities in Texas and 97 cities nationwide have achieved a Class 1 rating, a prestigious group that Missouri City will soon join thanks to the many staff members, elected officials and stakeholder partners that assisted in improving public safety needs for the “Show Me City”.

ISO’s Public Protection Classification Program (PPC) plays an important role in the underwriting process at insurance companies. Most U.S. insurers use the PPC information as part of their decision making when deciding what businesses to underwrite, coverages to offer or prices to charge for residential or commercial property insurance. Communities that improve their PPC rating may get lower insurance premiums.

“Receiving an ISO Class 1 is a huge achievement for a Fire Department. In the fire service world, it is a very high honor to have this designation,” Fire Chief Russell Sander said. “An ISO Class 1 public protection rating is the highest a fire department and community can receive. We are proud to join the ranks of other local, state and nationwide municipalities who have achieved a similar rating. ”

Missouri City & Rescue Services Chief Russell Sander poses in front of Fire Station 5

Missouri City & Rescue Services Chief Russell Sander poses in front of Fire Station 5

Missouri City’s Fire & Rescue Services Department put a plan in action after it received its most recent ISO rating in 2006, which at the time was an ISO Class 3 Public Protection Rating. The Department’s multi-year plan included enacting the Quint concept, improving and increasing the training of firefighters, and improving the fire education and prevention activities, such as adopting the 2015 Fire Code.

In 2014, the department had a contractor evaluate the City’s status and suggest improvements before the actual grading process began in 2015. ISO rates communities periodically based on the last PPC score. Improvements were made based on this study that were within the budgetary limits.

“The opening of Fire Station 5 was also crucial to helping the City achieve the ISO rating and ensured that residents in our ETJ received the same rating,” Chief Sander said. “Additionally, the operation of the squad full-time provided additional staff on duty. It also reduced the calls the Quint responded to out of station 1, leaving it available for fire calls.”

Property owners within five miles of a fire station and 1,000 feet of a fire hydrant could save a possible 9 percent on residential buildings and 4 percent on commercial properties. A Class 1 also assists as an economic development tool. Missouri City’s Class 1 rating will go into effect on Aug. 1, 2016 and, afterward, residents will be able to ask their insurance providers how the new rating may impact premiums.

ISO evaluates a community’s Fire Department’s response capabilities, training, and equipment. It also evaluates the 911 dispatch center’s ability to handle emergency calls. Municipal water systems are also evaluated.

More information on the program can be found on the Texas State Fire Marshal website: http://www.tdi.texas.gov/fire/fmppcfaq.html.

For more information about Missouri City, please watch the City website: http://www.missouricitytx.gov, like us on Facebook—fb/MissouriCityTX, follow us on Twitter and Instagram—@MissouriCityTX and watch Missouri City Television (Ch. 16 on Comcast and Ch. 99 on AT&T U-verse).

Brace Yourself for Fall and Winter Rainfall

19 10 2015

In its Fall 2015 Newsletter, the Brazos River Authority published an article indicating that those of us who reside in the Brazos River watershed, and that includes Fort Bend County, should be aware that we could experience more rainfall than normal this year.  The article is below:

A record-setting El Niño has the potential to deluge Texas with wet weather during the late fall and winter months, which could top off Brazos basin reservoir levels that have been dropping due to returning drought conditions. But the same weather phenomenon could also bring too much of a good thing, with potential flood conditions also a possibility in upcoming months.

The National Weather Service Fort Worth Office’s Climate Prediction Center projects that the El Niño conditions will continue into the spring.

What is El Niño? It is a weather pattern which begins in the Pacific Ocean and results in changing wind patterns and water temperatures. These weather patterns don’t just stay in that area, but move to other places, and affect the weather in the United States.

Climate experts say the current El Niño pattern is one of the largest ever observed, and El Niño is expected to get stronger in the coming months.

What will the impact be for the Brazos Basin?

The Pacific Jet Stream is expected to bring wetter conditions than usual to North and Central Texas, along with cooler winter temperatures. Interestingly, the NWS reports that outbreaks of extreme cold weather are actually less likely during strong El Niño winters, with fewer days of freezing temperatures. So while the weather may be cooler, extremes are less likely.

It is the increased cloud cover and precipitation that should result in lower than usual daytime high temperatures.

Texas experienced a wetter than usual spring this year, but the heat and dry weather of July and August allowed the drought conditions to return to the Brazos basin and other parts of the state.

If El Niño brings significant rainfall, as expected, it will end the ongoing “flash drought.” A flash drought is one that develops quickly but does not last long. Also, because the wetter weather is expected through much of the 2016 spring, that could prevent or delay drought conditions from returning later next year.

Flooding is always a concern, and can occur even during periods of drought, the NWS reports. During a prolonged wet period, however, the likelihood of flooding greatly increases because of saturated soil.

This past spring, the rainfall filled depleted reservoirs. This fall and winter, with most reservoirs remaining close to full, “the runoff from heavy multiple rain events would likely surge lake levels back into their flood pools,” the NWS warns.

Since data has been collected on El Niño patterns, there are El Niño events that can be classified as strong, and only two of these (1991-92 and 1997-98) were extraordinarily wet. However, those two seasons did not have much freezing precipitation. Two years that did have more freezing precipitation than normal were the 1965-66 and 1972-73 seasons, which interestingly, did not have higher precipitation levels overall.

State climatologist’s forecast

State climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said that we can’t predict with certainly what this El Niño season will bring, but we can be pretty sure of some wet weather.

“Most El Niño events produce above normal rain across Texas, especially from late fall to early spring,” he said. “But the two strongest El Niño events in history were associated with near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall in Texas. It may be that there’s a sweet spot for El Niño and Texas rainfall, and the strongest El Niño events overshoot the mark. The fourth-strongest El Niño (since 1895) was the 1991-1992 El Niño that helped produce extensive flooding along the Brazos River in December 1991. About the only thing that seems possible to rule out at this stage is the possibility of being substantially drier than normal over the next nine months,” Nielsen-Gammon said.

“Because Texas is near the southern edge of the jet stream on average, storminess increases during El Niño and decreases during La Niña. In general, the chances of wet weather in the winter increase across the southern United States and decrease a bit in the northern United States. Temperatures in the southern United States tend to be a bit cooler than normal during El Niño, and warmer than normal in the northern United States.”

How certain is the impact of an El Niño pattern?

“In some places the effect is more reliable than others,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “In Texas the effect is especially reliable, but even so, it only accounts for about a third of the year-to-year weather variations we experience. Since 1950, Texas as a whole has never had a November through March significantly drier than normal during an El Niño.

“An El Niño winter is typically cold, wet, and cloudy. The best overall adjective would be ‘yucky.’ But think of all the food that’s going to be grown next spring that will have a good solid start thanks to the wet weather over the winter.”

Brazos basin status and forecast

Despite a hot and dry summer that lingered into early fall, the unusually rainy spring resulted in full reservoirs in the Brazos basin. While reservoir levels have declined some as a result of the recent hot, dry conditions, they are still “in pretty good shape,” said Brad Brunett, water services manager for the BRA.

“Reservoirs typically lag behind the onset and ending of drought conditions,” he said. “Following a wet period when lakes fill up, it may take several months of dry weather before the effects are seen in lake levels starting back down. Toward the end of a drought when rainfall starts increasing, it takes a while before enough runoff is generated to start positively impacting lake levels. Because of the rain earlier this year, we’re in good shape heading into fall, and that should be the case heading into next summer, too.”

If El Niño brings heavy rains, what will that mean for the basin?

“If we experience higher than normal rainfalls, there’s a good chance we’ll have to pass more flood water through BRA reservoirs, and the (US Army Corps of Engineers) reservoirs may be up in the flood pools again,” Brunett said.

“The good news is that we should be in great shape as far as water supply heading into the summer months.”