More About April Showers in Southeast Texas

22 04 2015

The National Weather Service issued a Public Information Statement this afternoon indicating that Southeast Texas has experienced above normal rainfall through April 19th of this year.  The month of April has been wetter than a normal month across this region.  Though we have experienced rain from time to time all month long, a bulk of the rainfall, according to the National Weather Service, has fallen since April 10th.  One of the rain gauges used by the National Weather Service is located at Sugar Land Regional Airport.  So far in April, that gauge has measured 8.67 inches of rain. The year-to-date total for the gauge at the airport is 17.85 inches; or an amount that is over 5 inches above normal.  It is too early to know if this trend will continue through the year and provide more consistent rain to Fort Bend County.

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U.S. Satellite Plans Falter, Imperiling Data on Storms

27 06 2013

The article below was published in The New York Times on October 26, 2012.  Though a bit dated it will provide you with a good understanding of the importance of satellite technology to protect citizens from weather related hazards.  The author of the article was John H. Cushman, Jr.  Though the article was written several months ago, the threat of a diminishing satellite system for capturing storm data is still significant.  Effective hazard mitigation does not happen magically; it requires thorough planning efforts based on accurate data.

The United States is facing a year or more without crucial satellites that provide invaluable data for predicting storm tracks, a result of years of mismanagement, lack of financing and delays in launching replacements, according to several recent official reviews.

The looming gap in satellite coverage, which some experts view as almost certain within the next few years, could result in shaky forecasts about storms like Hurricane Sandy, which is expected to hit the East Coast early next week.

The endangered satellites fly pole-to-pole orbits and cross the Equator in the afternoon, scanning the entire planet one strip at a time. Along with orbiters on other timetables, they are among the most effective tools used to pin down the paths of major storms about five days ahead.

All this week, forecasters have been relying on such satellites for almost all the data needed to narrow down what were at first widely divergent computer models of what Hurricane Sandy would do next: hit the coast, or veer away into the open ocean?

Right on schedule, the five-day models began to agree on the likeliest answer. By Friday afternoon, the storm’s center was predicted to approach Delaware on Monday and Tuesday, with powerful winds, torrential rains and dangerous tides ranging over hundreds of miles.

New York and other states declared emergencies; the Navy ordered ships to sea to avoid damage. Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York City warned that no matter where or when the storm landed, the city would not escape its effects. And from the Carolinas to New England, public safety officials were urgently advising tens of millions of residents to prepare for the worst, including the possibility of historic flooding, power failures and snow.

Experiments show that without this kind of satellite data, forecasters would have underestimated by half the huge blizzard that hit Washington in 2010.

“We cannot afford to lose any enhancement that allows us to accurately forecast any weather event coming our way,” said Craig J. Craft, commissioner of emergency management for Nassau County on Long Island, where the great hurricane of 1938 killed hundreds. On Thursday, Mr. Craft was seeking more precise forecasts for Sandy and gearing up for possible evacuations of hospitals and nursing homes, as were ordered before Tropical Storm Irene last year. “Without accurate forecasts it is hard to know when to pull that trigger,” he said.

Experts have grown increasingly alarmed in the past two years because the existing polar satellites are nearing or beyond their life expectancies, and the launch of the next replacement, known as J.P.S.S.-1, has slipped to 2017, probably too late to avoid a coverage gap of at least a year.

Prodded by lawmakers and auditors, the satellite program’s managers are just beginning to think through alternatives when the gap occurs, but these are unlikely to avoid it.

This summer, three independent reviews of the $13 billion program — by the Commerce Department’s inspector general, the Government Accountability Office, and a team of outside experts — each questioned the cost estimates for the program, criticized managers for not pinning down the designs and called for urgent remedies. The project is run by the Commerce Department’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and NASA.

The outside review team, led by A. Thomas Young, an aerospace industry leader, called the management of the program “dysfunctional.”

In response, top Commerce and NOAA officials on Sept. 18 ordered what they called an urgent restructuring — just the latest overhaul of the troubled program. They streamlined the management, said they would fill major vacancies quickly and demanded immediate reports on how the agency planned to cope with the gap. They have moved quickly to nail down the specific designs of the J.P.S.S.-1’s components, many of them already partly built. And they promised to quickly complete a new independent cost estimate to verify the program’s budget.

Ciaran Clayton, NOAA’s communications director, said in a statement that the agency’s top priority was to provide timely, accurate forecasts to protect the public, and that it would continue to develop and update plans to cover any potential gap.

The under secretary of commerce responsible for NOAA, Jane Lubchenco, issued the memorandum ordering the changes. In it, she wrote that the administration had been trying all along to fix “this dysfunctional program that had become a national embarrassment due to chronic management problems.”

“It is a long, sad history,” said Dennis Hartmann, the chairman of a broad review of earth-observing satellite programs released in May by the National Research Council. The report projected a dismal decline in what has been a crown jewel of modern earth and atmospheric science.

The Joint Polar Satellite System also includes important sensors for studying the global climate, and these too are at risk.

But its main satellites are most notable because they put instruments to sense atmospheric moisture, temperature and the like into what is known as the “polar p.m.” orbit, a passage from lower altitude that provides sharp and frequent images of global weather patterns. (Other satellites stare continuously at one part of the globe from farther off, for short-term forecasting.)

Polar satellites provide 84 percent of the data used in the main American computer model tracking Hurricane Sandy.

For years, as the accuracy of this kind of forecasting has steadily improved, NOAA’s p.m. polar satellites have been a crucial factor, like the center on a basketball team.

But all the while, despite many warnings, the coverage gap has grown ever more likely.

The department told Congress this summer that it could not come up with any way to launch J.P.S.S.-1 any sooner. Kathryn D. Sullivan, assistant secretary of commerce, said it would “endeavor to maintain the launch date as much as practicable.”

The Government Accountability Office, which views a gap as “almost certain,” has been urging NOAA to come up with alternatives, like leaning on other commercial, military or government satellites for helpful data. But it said it would take a long time and more money to get any such jury-rigged system running.

For now, the agency is running on a stopgap bill that allows it to redirect money from other projects to the polar satellites. In approving it, Congress demanded a plan by next week showing how NOAA intended to stay on schedule and within a strict limit — about $900 million a year.

“NOAA does not have a policy to effect consistent and reliable cost estimates,” the Commerce inspector general said. The outside review team said it could not tell “if the current $12.9 billion is high, low, or exactly correct.”

The program’s problems began a decade ago with an effort to merge military and civilian weather satellites into a single project. After its cost doubled and its schedule slipped five years, that project was sundered by the Obama administration.

As its existing satellites aged and the delays mounted, NOAA finally put a new model named Suomi into orbit a year ago that now helps bridge the gap until the next launchings, in 2017 and in 2022 — two and four years late, respectively.

But there are lingering concerns that technical glitches have shortened Suomi’s useful lifetime, perhaps to just three years. Predicting a satellite’s lifetime is like trying to guess when a light bulb will go out. The most likely timing of a gap in coverage is between 2016 and 2018, according to the best official estimates.

That would “threaten life and property,” the independent review team warned.





Fort Bend County is StormReady!

12 08 2012

At the August 9th Fort Bend County Commissioners Court meeting, officials from the National Weather Service presented Judge Robert Hebert and Fort Bend County with a certificate indicating that the County is now StormReady.  For more information about the StormReady designation, please see my previous blog entry.

The photo below includes:  Gene Hafele from the National Weather Service; Alan Spears, Deputy Emergency Management Coordinator; County Judge Robert Hebert; Jeff Braun, Emergency Management Coordinator; Deputy Richard Swonke, Fort Bend County Sheriff’s Office; and Captain Danny Jan, Fort Bend County Sheriff’s Office.





Fort Bend County named StormReady County by National Weather Service

28 07 2012

For the last couple of years, Fort Bend County has been striving to meet the requirements for being recognized by the National Weather Service as a StormReady County.  StormReady is a nationwide community preparedness program that uses a grassroots approach to help communities develop plans to handle all types of severe weather—from tornadoes to tsunamis. The program encourages communities to take a new, proactive approach to improving local hazardous weather operations by providing emergency managers with clear-cut guidelines on how to improve their hazardous weather operations.

Various individuals are responsible for the County achieving the designation, but the two most important have been Alan Spears, Deputy Emergency Management Coordinator of the County’s Office of Emergency Management, and Captain Danny Jan of the County’s Sheriff’s Office.  Their dedication and efforts have allowed Fort Bend County to:

  • Establish a 24-hour warning point and emergency operations center
  • Have more than one way to receive severe weather warnings and forecasts and to alert the public
  • Create a system that monitors weather conditions locally
  • Promote the importance of public readiness through community seminars
  • Develop a formal hazardous weather plan, which includes training severe weather spotters and holding emergency exercises.

Fort Bend County OEM wishes to thank Dan Reilly who is the National Weather Service Meteorologist that assisted OEM as we worked to meet all the requirements of the StormReady program.

As of July 24, 2012, there were 1940 StormReady sites in 48 states, Puerto Rico and Guam; 933 counties, 762 communities, 113 universities, 11 Indian nations, 51 commercial sites, 34 military sites, and 25 government sites.

In Texas, there are 125 StormReady designations, including 30 counties, 73 communities, 16 universities, 4 commercial sites, and 2 government sites.  If you would like to see a map showing the designation in Texas, click here:  Texas StormReady Map. In the Houston metropolitan area, Fort Bend County is the only County that has achieved the designation in the region.  Three cities in our area have also achieved the designation, including the City of Friendswood, the City of LaPorte, and the City of Pasadena.

Very soon, Fort Bend County will receive the formal notification letter from the National Weather Service and participate in a recognition ceremony.  Attaining the designation indicates that Fort Bend County is committed to safety and preparedness.

For more information about the National Weather Service’s StormReady program, click here:  StormReady